Results tagged ‘ Rockies ’
Breaking down the pitching stats
The Brewers pitching is not the best, there is no real debate there. For this blog however, I decided to look at some pitching stats that are not always posted in the morning box score. I wanted to answer the following question: Even though the pitching staff is bad, how bad can we be and still make the playoffs???? To answer this, I looked at past seasons of playoff contenders, and what their team ERA looked like, as well as run differential (runs scored versus runs against). So let’s take a look at the numbers. The 4 teams that make the playoffs last year in the National League were the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Rockies, and the Cardinals. On June 1st of 2009, the team lines looked like this:
Team Record Place Games Back Team ERA Run Differential
Phillies 28-20 1st – 5.01 +. 45/game
Dodgers 35-17 1st – 3.72 +1.67/game
Rockies 20-29 5th 13.5 4.84 -.34/game
Cardinals 29-21 2nd 1 3.33 +. 66/game
Brewers 30-20 1st – 2.04 +. 48/game
This tells us a couple of things. First, it doesn’t really matter what your record is on June 1. You could be in first or fifth. I think this should give us some hope in Wisconsin. We can also see that Team ERA is not as important as run differential. The Phillies had an absurd 5.01 ERA and still in first with 28 wins. The Rockies however, had a lower ERA but 8 less wins. They did have a -.34 runs per game differential, which seems to make all the difference. So, in the short term, ERA is not as important. Let’s look at the team ERA’s at the end of the season:
Team Team ERA Rank in NL
Cardinals 3.66 4th
Phillies 4.16 6th
Dodgers 3.41 1st
Rockies 4.22 8th
Brewers 4 .83 15th
As you can see, it pays to have a good team ERA over the course of the season. But how important is it to have a team ERA? Does this happen every year, or was last year an anomaly? To find this answer to this, I went back all the way to 2000 and looked at the 4 NL playoff teams and their NL ERA rank. It is as follows:
2008 Team Rank
PHI 4
LAD 1
CHC 3
MIL 2
2007 Team Rank
COL 8
ARI 4
PHI 13
CHC 2
2006 Team Rank
STL 9
NYM 3
SDP 2
LAD 4
2005 Team Rank
HOU 2
STL 1
ATL 6
SDP 7
2004 Team Rank
STL 2
HOU 6
LAD 4
ATL 1
2003 Team Rank
FLA 7
CHC 3
SFG 2
ATL 9
2002 Team Rank
SFG 2
STL 4
ATL 1
ARI 6
2001 Team Rank
ARI 2
ATL 1
HOU 10
STL 3
2000 Team Rank
NYM 3
STL 7
SFG 4
ATL 1
The highest ERA in the last 10 years to make the playoffs was 4.73, which was held by the 2007 Phillies. They also had one of the most potent offenses in the league, as well as some clutch playoff pitching from their starters. As of Tuesday, May 18, before the Brewers/Reds game, Milwaukee posted a 5.24 Team ERA, ranking us 14th in the National League. It seems that the Brewers need to reduce their ERA to at least 1 run less a game (4.24).
Numbers rarely lie, and I have to believe that the Brewers chances of making the playoffs depends on their pitching staffs ability to lower their ERA. There are many good teams in the NL this year, and it seems as though it might be easier to win the NL Central than it is to win the Wild Card. How far can they get it down? I hope to a reasonable number by the all star break, or else we might be seeing a whole bunch of changes, from Doug Melvin to Macha, to major, major trades.
-Ben
Random Thought of the Day
Recently, Jody Gerut hit for the cycle for the Brewers. I understand that it is hard to hit a single, a double a triple, and a homerun all in one game. The odds aren’t in your favor. But there are lots of box scores that are not in your favor and hard to do. Why should a cycle be the coolest one? Is a cycle better than 2 doubles and 2 home runs? They don’t keep records of who hits 2 triples and a double and a home run in a game? It just makes me think that if someone has a chance to get a cycle and they need a single to cinch it, they might not try to stretch it into a second double and stop at first. Which, in all seriousness, is ridiculous.
Great Start? Still Some Concern
So the Brewers are off to a nice 2-2 start. Looking at just the first series against the Rockies they took 2 of 3 from a playoff team. It was great to see the Brewers come out flying but I have some concerns about what I saw during that series. Of course I’m being a little picky but these are issues that need to be worked out if this team really wants to make the playoffs.
Yovani’s pitch count
I really like Gallardo and think he is an ace type pitcher. My one knock on him last year was he threw too many pitches and would tend to walk guys too much. On opening day he only walked two, which was great to see. He still threw 109 pitches in only 6 innings which means he’s still going deep into counts. I paid close attention during that game and noticed he seemed to always start behind in the count. He just didn’t seem to get ahead of guys on a regular basis like an ace should do. Ubaldo Jimenez was up 0-1, 1-2 on almost every hitter it seemed like. He attacked the zone early and put the hitters in defense mode the rest of the at-bat. I have plenty of faith in Gallardo and I’m not trying to say he’s not going to be an ace this year, he will be. I just would like to see our ace go deeper into games and start attacking hitters. He needs to impose his will on the hitters and make it into the 7th and 8th inning on a regular basis.
Edmonds in the 5 hole??
I talked about my issues with the constant lineup changes in a previous blog and hoped to see a more consistent lineup this year. So what does Macha do on to start the season? Throw a wrench into the whole thing and move McGehee to the 6th spot in favor of Edmonds? It made no sense to me and I’m hoping it is not a sign of things to come. Macha needs to just let the players settle into their spots in the lineup and let them hit. While I’m not thrilled with the way the lineup is set Macha just needs to let it be. Edmonds has done a great job working counts and seeing pitches but he’s not a threat like McGehee is. McGehee is going to put the ball in play and make you pay if put runners on in front of him. Edmonds still strikes out too much to really make a team second guess walking Prince. Let McGehee drive in runs and protect Prince. Edmonds can work the counts and frustrate pitchers as they’re trying to get through the bottom of the order.
Defense behind the plate?
I like Zaun and Kottaras a lot and think it’s a nice upgrade over last year but they’ve not looked sharp blocking balls. Zaun had the blunder on opening day that cost the brewers an early run. I couldn’t tell but there should have been more communication from Gallardo or McGehee showing Zaun where the ball was but you can’t let that happen. Kottaras allowed two balls to get by him in his one game. This is a disturbing trend in just the first three games. I’m going to chalk it up to new catchers getting used to new pitchers and hope it’s just that. They’ve done a great job throwing runners out which is something we didn’t see last year. Now they just need to keep pitches in front of them and not allow runners to get free bases. It also does not allow a pitcher to throw their best breaking stuff. They might worry if they put one in the dirt it’s going to the backstop and the runners will move up 90 feet. A pitcher cannot have that thought in their head as they pitch. They need to be able to trust their catcher to make a play when need be.
Of course there is a lot to get excited about from what we’ve seen so far this year. I just remember last year when we got off to that great start and everyone was talking playoffs again, I know I was. We ignored small issues that could have came back to hurt us later int he season. As the season moved along those issues (lack of depth and Suppans struggles) really slowed us down and derailed our season. Yes it’s early in the season and I normally don’t put too much stock into the first couple series as a sign of things to come. Now is the time to figure out what we have and what needs. Let’s not wait until we hit that first slump and we act surprised about some of the Brewers struggles. We figure them out now we limit the length and amount of slumps the Brewers will hit during the year.
-Ross
Random Baseball Thought
So something very interesting happened on Opening Day this year that has never happened in the history of the game. Ian Stewart became the first player in the history of the game to hit a home run in his first at-bat on his birthday, on opening day. Yes this is an obscure pointless stat but it’s a reason I love baseball. The game has been around for over 100 years and still every year you’ll see things that have never happened.
Opening Day, Alaska Style
As this being my first opening day far away from Miller Park, I had to try and make the best of what I could. Being 3 hours behind, I knew that it would mean for an early morning, but I was ready for it. Here then, is how a Brewer fan followed the Brewers on opening day. (Please note that I do not get the game on my own TV at home, which greatly hinders my choices for opening day.)
6:45 a.m.- Wake up, throw on some clothes, and make the ten minute drive to school to get my sub lessons ready for the day. I’m not going in to work folks.
7:31 a.m.- After checking my emails and reading some Brewers stuff at school, I shut down the computer, head back home, and cue up “Brewers Brewers keep turning up the heat” and “Catch the fever” also a Brewers song. If you don’t know the songs, search for it on YouTube. Anyways, here I am blasting Brewers at 7:31 in the morning, waking up my fiancée, and doing a Brewer dance. Time to get some food in me, if I’m going to make it through the whole day.
7:48 a.m.- Non-alcoholic smoothies. I was contemplating putting alcohol in, but we only had dark rum or amaretto. I was looking more for something like vodka or tequila.
8:11 a.m. -After a shower to wash away the demons of the 2009 season, I contemplate which Brewer outfit to go with. I finally decide on the “Bring back the mug” shirt, white Brewer jacket, and a hat. But the hat was a dilemma all in itself. I have about 4 Brewer hats, but narrowing it
down to one was tougher than expected. I got it down to 2, the current Brewers hat and the hat from the Chuckie Carr era. After a quick text to Ross, we agree that the current hat is the way to go.
8:28 a.m. -For the third time this morning, I triple check that Brewers game will be playing at the Peanut Farm, a local establishment who plays almost every sporting event that is on. Yes, it’s playing, and yes with the Brewers announcers. I wish the game were starting right now.
9:45 a.m.- We arrive at the Peanut Farm, and take our seats next to a nice big television. The waitress comes over and asks if we want anything and before she can get all the words out of her mouth I ask for a nice big Bloody Mary. But I am shutdown (which should have been a sign of things to come). They do not serve alcohol until 10 o’clock! Can you believe it! In a city where the sun doesn’t go down for 6 months, you have to wait until 10 in the morning! I have never missed Wisconsin more than at this moment.
9:49 a.m.- We asked the waitress to switch the big television to the Brewer game, and 2 minutes later the manager comes over and asks which game we wanted to watch. Really? I am head to do in Brewer garb, Tessa has on her Brewer track jacket and shirt underneath, we are the only ones in the place wearing Brewer gear… You really don’t know which game we want to watch? Really?!?!?
9:55 a.m.- Tessa and I start to discuss nicknames for the 2010 Brewers. She submits “Bam Bam Braun”. I get it, it’s catchy and all. But he already has a nickname. It’s the Hebrew Hammer. His Wikipedia page even says that’s what his nickname is, so you know it’s official. Even though Bam Bam Braun is catchy, I have to respectively disagree.
10:10 a.m.- Strike one by Gallardo. Seconds later there is an infield hit that Weeks flips to Escobar and they barely miss the runner. If this is what I see on the first play, we are in for some treats as far as turning double plays goes.
10:14 a.m. After not getting any base runners during spring training, Zaun nails the first guy who goes. Perfect throw, right on the money. I propose a new nickname: The Killer Z. It’s either that or Bernie, since he looks just like Bernie Brewer. Either way, Kohl’s needs to start stocking t-shirt jerseys of Zaun.
10:15 a.m. Bloody Mary. Finally!
10:27 a.m. Edmonds is old! He can barely get the barrel of the bat around on Jimenez, who is throwing some gas. That’s what happens when you take a year off, I guess.
10:36 a.m. Rockies 1-0. Zaun does a bad job blocking a ball in the dirt, and then can’t find it so the runner scores from 2nd. I contemplate why I even thought he was deserving of a nickname. The Killer Z let me down.
10:37 a.m.- A lack of concentration and Yovanni leaves a 3-0 fastball right down the middle. I think Stewart hit it about 600 feet.
10:40 a.m. First Chef Jerry Garcia sighting! I miss this about Wisconsin television-the commercials. Chef Jerry Garcia teams up with Piggly Wiggly to make some delicious Brats for todays game. I like that they keep it simple for opening day.
10:44 a.m. Escobar gets a hit with 2 outs, allowing the pitcher to bat in the same inning. I don’t like the fact that every time Escobar gets a 2 out hit, he can’t steal, in fear of getting thrown out and the pitcher starting the next inning at the plate. That’s why we bat pitcher 8 and Escobar 9.
10:58 a.m. Either Braun is wearing a smaller jersey, or he’s been lifting and training pretty hard over the offseason.
11:20 a.m. 3-0 Rockies
11:38 a.m. 4-0 Rockies.
11:50 a.m. 4-1! Braun hits a laser to left field that scores Gomez, who got to second on a wild pitch. Here we go!
12:20 p.m. Ross texts me and says to put on the rally caps. A little early in the game, but I oblige and turn my hat inside out. Gomez homers and I learn to never question another Brewer fan when they ask you to put on a rally cap. That should be like an unwritten rule or something.
Gallardo’s final line: 7 innings pitched, 4 runs, 3 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 2 walks. Not bad at all, but not good enough for today.
12:42 p.m. Narveson gives up a lead off double that you would think would end up hurting him pretty bad. However, 6 minutes later he is out of the jam by pop up, pop up, ground ball. I like this kid, even though later in the game he does finally give up a run.
1:10 Bottom of the 9th, here we go!
1:11 Weeks hit by pitch. Rally Rabbit!
1:12 Wild pitch. This just might happen…
1:14 Gomez bleeder to right. Men on 2nd and 3rd, with the 2 best hitters in the National League.
1:17 Braun gets a sac fly to cut the lead to 5-3. Now first base is open and they do not have to pitch to Prince.
1:18 Prince hits a line drive that is going about 100 mph and Tulowitzki comes up with it. 2 outs.
1:20 With Hart on deck, Edmonds lines out by hitting the ball almost as hard as Prince.
Final: 5-3
This is the first opening day that the Brewers have lost in a long time, and it’s kind of weird. I’m used to saying “162-0!” But now I’m just “You can’t win ‘em all anyways!” It really changes your perspective. I just hope the Brewers can win one of the next 2 or I’m out 20 dollars (If gambling was legal).
-Ben
Random Thought of the Day:
There was a commercial during the Brewer game yesterday that was talking about the Butler Duke Championship game. They were interviewing a Butler kid and he says ” I don’t know what’s bigger: Beating Duke, or winnning the National Championship.” Really? You can’t figure out which one is bigger? Let me hel
p you: WINNING THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. Ridiculous.
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