Results tagged ‘ Postseason predictions ’
Ben’s End of the Year Grades/Postseason Predictions
Well, the end of the season is here, and I took my 2 weeks to put the season in perspective and try to logically think about what happened this season. Some of the stuff I will say should be obvious, but I will try and bring up some valid points that you may have missed. Without further ado………
Pitching (Both Starting and Relief): D-
Yes, there were some injuries, and we had to put some guys in that maybe weren’t ready for the majors. But that’s just the thing. We were not prepared for ANYBODY to get injured or for Jorge Julio to go AWOL 3 weeks into the season. The Brewers ranked 15th (Out of 16) in the NL in team ERA. The posting of 4.83 is almost one point higher than we posted last year (3.87). If you look at only team ERA as the determining factor for how well a team does, we totally over-performed. We really only should of won about 70-75 games tops. AND we had an all-star closer on our team. AND we should have had Gallardo go to the St. Louis at the break as well. Which tells you just how HORRIBLE the rest of the staff was. D minus might actually be a little too nice when you sit down and look at all the facts…
Team Defense: C-
At the break when I gave out grades, I stated…
“A shaky infield and backstop are evened out by an above average
outfield. The Brewers rank at the bottom in number of runners caught
stealing and not much better in stolen bases allowed.”
Well, our infield got a little better with the every day play of McGehee and Lopez being added ot the team. Escobar also appeared to hold his own when he got time at SS. But, our outfield got worse, mainly in right field. Cattalanatto doesn’t know how to take an angle, Gerut is NOT an everyday player, and Hart has trouble judging balls hit right at him. This is a place we can totally upgrade next year defensively. It might not be on the top of the list for Melvin and co. this winter though, so don’t expect too much. As far as our backstop, the Brewers ranked last in number of runners caught stealing a base. Some of that is the score, some of that is the pitcher, but when you make such a big jump from last year to this, it’s hard to not blame anybody then the guy throwing the ball down to second. We also ranked 12th in the NL for team fielding percentage. An area of improvement if we seriously want to be a contender next year.
Hitting: B+
The Brewers high spot on the whole year would have to be team hitting. Braun and Fielder made for the most productive 3-4 punch around. (Side note: Thank goodness Melvin finally came out and said WE ARE NOT TRADING FIELDER–That was getting a little ludicrous.) As a team, we had the third highest batting average with a .263, which is up almost ten points from the first half. We also ranked third in home runs with 182. I did some math and compared the average hitting stats of those teams who made the playoffs versus the Brew Crew’s stats. Stolen Bases: The 4 NL playoff teams averaged 104, the Brewers 68. NL playoff teams averaged 1,135 strikeouts, Milwaukee 1231. And in home runs, the NL playoff teams averaged 179. Milwaukee also had the 3rd lowest amount of sac bunts. In walks, we also dropped as a team from 2nd to 6th.
All in all, the Brewers maintained their offensive prowess throughout the second half, led by Braun and Fielder. By the way, we need to come up with a cool nick name for those two, something reminiscent of the “Bash Brothers” but way cooler and without the steroids.
Coaching: B
With everything that happened during the season, and how bad the pitching staff did, I really think that we out-performed and had more wins than we probably should have. Baseball-reference.com does this cool thing where they plug in all of a teams stats for the year and comes out with how many wins they SHOULD of had. If you look at our team site, you can see that Baseball-reference thought we did 2 games better than we should have. However, Macha continues to not stand up for his players to umpires during a game, something that really bugs me. When Ned was around, he really had everyone playing as a team, something that seems strangely lacking from 2009 Brewers. Macha will never get an “A” grade from me until he gets kicked out of a game.
Overall: C-
Not much different from my mid-season grade, but the difference between a C+ and a C- can be 5-9%. And that seems about right in my assessment.
Off-Season Predictions
Melvin and Co. have a lot of work to do this off season, and so there are a lot of moves that need to be done. I will make my bold predictions that mostly I hope to happen in order for this team to do well.
*Looper and Brewers both agree to the 2nd year option on his contract.
*Cameron, who loves Milwaukee so much, will come back for a 1 year deal worth $5 million, with a mutual option for the second.
*J.J. Hardy will get traded to Boston for relief pitching.
*Doug Davis will sign a 2 year deal.
*Jeff Suppan, who wants to win so bad and feels terrible for how he’s pitched, will restructure his contract (I know, long shot here)
*Jason Kendall moves to Mexico( OK, OK, enough with the silly ones).
* Corey Hart will get packaged with Mat Gamel and a minor league arm for either an All-Star right fielder (see: Adam Dunn) or a #2 pitcher (Millwood, Baker, etc.).
*Brewers HAVE to find the come-back pitcher of the year next season (Early Favorite: Francisco Liriano)
–Ben
Random Baseball Thought
Afternoon baseball is the best. Watching the one game playoff with the Twins and the White Sox made me remember how much fun it is to watch those afternoon games. I really think that the World Series needs to play at least one game, on a Saturday or Sunday, during the day. One of the reasons why baseball is a dying sport in America is because kids can’t stay up and watch the games. Now, for me being in Alaska, the games start at the perfect time, but I’m 3 hours behind Central Time Zone. But growing up, those games sometimes would START before it was time to go to bed. And of course, I would listen to it on my Walkman until I couldn’t stay awake anymore, but that’s beside the point. Bring back day time playoff baseball!!!!!!
Midseason Grades/Post-Season Predictions
2009 has started as a rollercoaster ride with the Milwaukee Brewers. There have been our fair share of ups and downs, to go along with some surprises, both good and bad. The Brewers have a formiddable task ahead of them if they would like to repeat as playoff-bound. The following are the grades I give the Brewers NOT compared to how I think they should have done, but how they did compared to the rest of the field.
Pitching (Both Starting and Relief): D+
Yes, the Brewers are sending one pitcher to the all star game (Hoffman) and should be sending another one (Gallardo) but that sure says something about the rest of the staff, doesn’t it? Even if you calculate that Parra got sent down mid way through the first half and Bush has been out with injury, the pitching has been atrocious. The starters don’t log enough innings to keep the bull pen rested, and when they do, the pen gives up 2 or 3 a night. The Brewers are 13th in the NL (out of 16) in team ERA (4.57), tied for last in complete games (1), given up the second most homeruns (114), And give up the 7th most walks in the league with 319 (Maybe not that important of a stat considering the Dodgers give up the 2nd most). The one bright spot is Trevor Hoffman who, even after missing the first month, is only 3 saves away from leading the league in that category. If the Brewers want any chance at all, they must get more innings pitched from their starters and more clutch performers in the bullpen.
Team Defense: C
A shaky infield and backstop are evened out by an above average outfield. The Brewers rank at the bottom in number of runners caught stealing and not much better in stolen bases allowed. They rank in the bottom three for double plays turned and are right in the middle of the pack for fielding percentage. However, with a former gold glove winner in Center Field, and a future gold glover in Left, as well as a former all star hanging out in the Right Field corner, the Brewers outfielders are the real deal. McGehee has stepped up and made some big plays, JJ Hardy has been a solid defender, Gamel comes with a learning curve, and Bill Hall will always show off his arm any chance he gets. Defense is not a weak spot and it won’t be the reason we would falter down the stretch, but I don’t think it will win us any games either. It’s a wash.
Hitting: B+
This might seem like a harsh grade, but the Crew are not all around good hitters. No one can argue the lineup’s ability to hit the longball, because they are ranked third with 103 dingers. They also have been much, much more patient under Dale Svuem as hitting coach, ranking 2nd in walks in the NL (352). Their OBP is very high and their slugging percentage is one of the best in the game. However, they rank 3rd in strikeouts (681) which I think is the biggest killer of them all. Nothing good can come from a strikeout, unless it’s JJ Hardy and the alternative would be him hitting into a double play. Also, team average is way down (12th, .255) and we are dead last in steals and sac bunts(see: Small Ball=Championships). The Brewers hitting can take them a far way, and they might only be a trade away from having the most potent lineup in the NL Central, if they don’t have it already.
Coaching: B-
The Brewers are in second place going into the break and have the opportunity of a lifetime coming out of the break if their pitching can hold up. The players all seem to get along with Svuem and he seems very influential on the plate approaches. Willy Randolph has brought a professionalism to the bench and has really worked hard on the defense, especially Rickie Weeks before he got hurt. This may sound crazy, and maybe it’s because I’m used to Ned Yost and his fiery temper, but I would like to see Coach Macha get kicked out of a game here or there. It shows your players that you are willing to stand up for them and that you have a passion about winning and losing and that every play matters to you. Sure something is to be said about having an even keel all the time, but as a player I would really appreciate my coach standing up for me on close plays or terrible calls. For this grade to move up to an A, the Brewers are going to have to: 1) Make the playoffs, 2) Handle their pitching staff better, and 3)Macha must get kicked out of 3 games. And I’m sticking to that.
Overall: C+
The Brewers are currently 2.5 games out of first in the NL central and 4 games out of the Wild Card. That means they have to do that much better than the rest of the NL by the end of September. Impossible? No. Here are my Playoff predictions:
Division Series Match ups:
Boston in 4 over Twins
Yankees in 5 over Angels
Dodgers in 5 over Brewers
Cardinals in 3 over Phillies
League Championship Series Match ups:
Boston in 6 over Yankees
Dodgers in 5 over Cardinals
World Series:
Dodgers in 7 over Red Sox
I hope I am wrong, but the Brewers are another year away from becoming a top flight team, and the pitching is just not where it needs to be in order to compete with the best in the playoffs. For the second straight year, the Brewers will lose to the World’s Champs, as the Dodgers take down the Red Sox. Almost all of baseball will root for the Yankees, however, to see Torre take down his old club. But A -Rod has never been able to hit in the postseason and he will choke in the clutch. Don’t feel bad when I’m right.
-Ben
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