The Brewers pitching is not the best, there is no real debate there.  For this blog however, I decided to look at some pitching stats that are not always posted in the morning box score.  I wanted to answer the following question:  Even though the pitching staff is bad, how bad can we be and still make the playoffs????  To answer this, I looked at past seasons of playoff contenders, and what their team ERA looked like, as well as run differential (runs scored versus runs against).  So let’s take a look at the numbers.  The 4 teams that make the playoffs last year in the National League were the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Rockies, and the Cardinals.  On June 1st of 2009, the team lines looked like this:

Team     Record    Place    Games Back    Team ERA    Run Differential
Phillies      28-20    1st                  —                    5.01          +. 45/game
Dodgers    35-17    1st                  —                    3.72         +1.67/game
Rockies     20-29    5th               13.5                  4.84            -.34/game
Cardinals  29-21    2nd                 1                     3.33         +. 66/game
                   
Brewers    30-20    1st                  —                    2.04           +. 48/game

This tells us a couple of things.  First, it doesn’t really matter what your record is on June 1.  You could be in first or fifth.  I think this should give us some hope in Wisconsin.  We can also see that Team ERA is not as important as run differential.  The Phillies had an absurd 5.01 ERA and still in first with 28 wins.  The Rockies however, had a lower ERA but 8 less wins.  They did have a -.34 runs per game differential, which seems to make all the difference.  So, in the short term,  ERA is not as important.  Let’s look at the team ERA’s at the end of the season:

Team        Team ERA    Rank in NL
Cardinals    3.66             4th
Phillies        4.16             6th
Dodgers      3.41              1st
Rockies       4.22              8th
Brewers     4 .83             15th

As you can see, it pays to have a good team ERA over the course of the season.  But how important is it to have a team ERA?  Does this happen every year, or was last year an anomaly?  To find this answer to this, I went back all the way to 2000 and looked at the 4 NL playoff teams and their NL ERA rank.  It is as follows:

2008    Team    Rank
                PHI    4
               LAD    1
              CHC    3
                MIL    2

2007    Team    Rank
              COL    8
              ARI     4
              PHI    13
             CHC    2

2006    Team    Rank
                STL    9
              NYM    3
               SDP    2
               LAD    4

2005    Team    Rank
              HOU    2
               STL    1
               ATL    6
              SDP    7

2004    Team    Rank
               STL    2
             HOU    6
              LAD    4
               ATL    1

2003    Team    Rank
                FLA    7
               CHC    3
               SFG    2
                ATL    9

2002    Team    Rank
               SFG    2
                STL    4
                ATL    1
                ARI    6

2001    Team    Rank
                ARI    2
                ATL    1
              HOU    10
                STL    3

2000    Team    Rank
              NYM    3
               STL    7
              SFG    4
               ATL    1

The highest ERA in the last 10 years to make the playoffs was 4.73, which was held by the 2007 Phillies.  They also had one of the most potent offenses in the league, as well as some clutch playoff pitching from their starters.  As of  Tuesday, May 18, before the Brewers/Reds game, Milwaukee posted a 5.24 Team ERA, ranking us 14th in the National League.  It seems that the Brewers need to reduce their ERA to at least 1 run less a game (4.24).  

Numbers rarely lie, and I have to believe that the Brewers chances of making the playoffs depends on their pitching staffs ability to lower their ERA.  There are many good teams in the NL this year, and it seems as though it might be easier to win the NL Central than it is to win the Wild Card.   How far can they get it down?  I hope to a reasonable number by the all star break, or else we might be seeing a whole bunch of changes, from Doug Melvin to Macha, to major, major trades.

-Ben

Random Thought of the Day
Recently, Jody Gerut hit for the cycle for the Brewers.  I understand that it is hard to hit a single, a double a triple, and a homerun all in one game.  The odds aren’t in your favor.  But there are lots of box scores that are not in your favor and hard to do.  Why should a cycle be the coolest one?  Is a cycle better than 2 doubles and 2 home runs?  They don’t keep records of who hits 2 triples  and a double and a home run in a game?  It just makes me think that if someone has a chance to get a cycle and they need a single to cinch it, they might not try to stretch it into a second  double and stop at first.  Which, in all seriousness, is ridiculous.