Results tagged ‘ Braves ’
Breaking down the pitching stats
The Brewers pitching is not the best, there is no real debate there. For this blog however, I decided to look at some pitching stats that are not always posted in the morning box score. I wanted to answer the following question: Even though the pitching staff is bad, how bad can we be and still make the playoffs???? To answer this, I looked at past seasons of playoff contenders, and what their team ERA looked like, as well as run differential (runs scored versus runs against). So let’s take a look at the numbers. The 4 teams that make the playoffs last year in the National League were the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Rockies, and the Cardinals. On June 1st of 2009, the team lines looked like this:
Team Record Place Games Back Team ERA Run Differential
Phillies 28-20 1st – 5.01 +. 45/game
Dodgers 35-17 1st – 3.72 +1.67/game
Rockies 20-29 5th 13.5 4.84 -.34/game
Cardinals 29-21 2nd 1 3.33 +. 66/game
Brewers 30-20 1st – 2.04 +. 48/game
This tells us a couple of things. First, it doesn’t really matter what your record is on June 1. You could be in first or fifth. I think this should give us some hope in Wisconsin. We can also see that Team ERA is not as important as run differential. The Phillies had an absurd 5.01 ERA and still in first with 28 wins. The Rockies however, had a lower ERA but 8 less wins. They did have a -.34 runs per game differential, which seems to make all the difference. So, in the short term, ERA is not as important. Let’s look at the team ERA’s at the end of the season:
Team Team ERA Rank in NL
Cardinals 3.66 4th
Phillies 4.16 6th
Dodgers 3.41 1st
Rockies 4.22 8th
Brewers 4 .83 15th
As you can see, it pays to have a good team ERA over the course of the season. But how important is it to have a team ERA? Does this happen every year, or was last year an anomaly? To find this answer to this, I went back all the way to 2000 and looked at the 4 NL playoff teams and their NL ERA rank. It is as follows:
2008 Team Rank
PHI 4
LAD 1
CHC 3
MIL 2
2007 Team Rank
COL 8
ARI 4
PHI 13
CHC 2
2006 Team Rank
STL 9
NYM 3
SDP 2
LAD 4
2005 Team Rank
HOU 2
STL 1
ATL 6
SDP 7
2004 Team Rank
STL 2
HOU 6
LAD 4
ATL 1
2003 Team Rank
FLA 7
CHC 3
SFG 2
ATL 9
2002 Team Rank
SFG 2
STL 4
ATL 1
ARI 6
2001 Team Rank
ARI 2
ATL 1
HOU 10
STL 3
2000 Team Rank
NYM 3
STL 7
SFG 4
ATL 1
The highest ERA in the last 10 years to make the playoffs was 4.73, which was held by the 2007 Phillies. They also had one of the most potent offenses in the league, as well as some clutch playoff pitching from their starters. As of Tuesday, May 18, before the Brewers/Reds game, Milwaukee posted a 5.24 Team ERA, ranking us 14th in the National League. It seems that the Brewers need to reduce their ERA to at least 1 run less a game (4.24).
Numbers rarely lie, and I have to believe that the Brewers chances of making the playoffs depends on their pitching staffs ability to lower their ERA. There are many good teams in the NL this year, and it seems as though it might be easier to win the NL Central than it is to win the Wild Card. How far can they get it down? I hope to a reasonable number by the all star break, or else we might be seeing a whole bunch of changes, from Doug Melvin to Macha, to major, major trades.
-Ben
Random Thought of the Day
Recently, Jody Gerut hit for the cycle for the Brewers. I understand that it is hard to hit a single, a double a triple, and a homerun all in one game. The odds aren’t in your favor. But there are lots of box scores that are not in your favor and hard to do. Why should a cycle be the coolest one? Is a cycle better than 2 doubles and 2 home runs? They don’t keep records of who hits 2 triples and a double and a home run in a game? It just makes me think that if someone has a chance to get a cycle and they need a single to cinch it, they might not try to stretch it into a second double and stop at first. Which, in all seriousness, is ridiculous.
If I Wasn’t a Brewers Fan, I’d Cheer For…..
So Ben and I were talking the other day and we started talking about other teams. I don’t remember who said it but the question came up, “What other teams do you watch?”. We both thought that was a great subject to blog on. Normally I’ll watch my Brewers and maybe catch whatever game is on TV. I’ll always check the box scores and see how my fantasy players did each night (with the amount of teams I have this year I’m pretty much looking at ever player) and that’s about it. I really have no allegiance to another team but there are a some teams out there I don’t mind. So to answer the question here are the two teams I’d watch if it wasn’t for the Brewers.
National League- Houston Astros
I know, I know, how could I like a team that competes with the Brewers in the central? Well I’ll explain. I really just don’t like the teams out East. Nationals, what’s the point? I won’t cheer for New York teams, never have and never will and same thing with Philly. I like a lot of players on those teams but just have a hard time cheering for them, great, smart fans though. Florida
never has the same team for more then 3 years and Atlanta just annoyed me growing up. Out West I never see them play. When they are on TV it’s as I’m falling asleep. So that just leaves the central. The Astros were just a fun team to watch growing up. I really liked Bagwell and Biggio. I’ve always been a fan of Berkman and Oswalt might be one of my favorite pitchers in the league, just a lot of fun to watch. When the Brewers were a bad team at the end of the 90′s and early 2000′s I always wanted to see the Astros go all the way. I never understood how a team with their talent never seemed to put it together in October.
Another thing I really like about this team is every year they just seem to get it figured out towards the end of the year. Yes, as a Brewers fans it’s annoying, but it’s a great thing for a fan. I like a team that plays hard till the end of the year and keeps playing for their fans. I’ve never seen the Astros just give up towards the end of the year. They’re always fighting till the end. Of course as a Brewers fan it was unfortunate to see them go another direction when they fired Cooper. I wish he was still there and they still had that Brewers tie to them. They did for a while have one of my favorite coaches of all-time in Phil Garner. I was born in 1983 and always loved baseball but I don’t remember a lot before the early 90′s. That was of course when Garner was the coach. 1992 is a year I’ll never forget. I know they didn’t make the playoffs but it was one of my favorite seasons. It was Molitor’s last year and the year Yount got his 3,000 hit. Garner was the coach that year and the team really took to his scrappy style. The Astros were the same way under him and it brought back some memories for me of that year. I’ll never be happy to see the Astros beat the Brewers or finish ahead but I won’t mind it as much.
American League- Seattle Mariners
This was a no brainer for me. Of course I was a Brewers fan growing up and nothing else but my favorite player was Ken Griffey Jr. I loved the way he played the game and how he just seemed to have so much fun doing it. Any chance I got I would watch the Mariners play just so I could see Griffey bat or make a great play in the field. Plus he just had one of the greates
t swings I have ever seen. It was almost perfect to watch. I was also a fan of Jay Buhner and Edger Martinez and Randy Johnson was great to watch but really thanks to Griffey I’ll always check the Mariners scores. I’ve always said that Griffey, in his prime, was the greatest player I’ve ever seen. Pujols is making his case and might make me change my mind some day. I really wish Griffey never had the injuries he had because it would have been great to see him chase down Hank Aarons record. It would have been such a great story to see him break it as Bonds chased it at the same time, just think of the storylines??? I was really happy to see Seattle pick Griffey up to wind down his career.
Of course Ichiro might be one of the most entertaining players in the game to watch. He’ll definitely go down as one of the greatest hitters I’ve ever seen. He’s a great outfielder and his arm is worth the price of admission. I really like what I’ve seen out of Franklin Gutierrez and think he’ll be a lot of fun to watch. Of course it helps that Jack Zduriencik is now the GM. Jack Z did great things for the Brewers and it was a shame we lost him but it was bound to happen. I really hope he can turn that team around and see him succeed in his new position.
Now I really don’t go out of my way to watch the Mariners or Astros. I like them but I wouldn’t say I’m a fan of them. At the end of the day there are really only two teams I’ll stand up and cheer for on a regular basis. That would be the Brewers, of course, and then whoever is playing the Cubs.
-Ross
Random Baseball Thought
Say what you want about Bud Selig. Most people seem to have a love/hate feeling towards him. I really don’t have a big opinion either way. I think he was the owner during some awful years for the Brewers but I don’t blame him for that. I love he took us to the NL and I like he’s making the effort to clean the game up, might have been a little late at doing so though. At the end of the day his I’ll remember that he made April 15th Jackie Robinson Day. It is a great way to keep his legacy alive till as long as Baseball is being played. Jackie Robinson will be talked about every year and each year we’ll get to hear about what he had to go through and how he overcame everything. Selig definitely got this one right and it’s a great tribute to Jackie Robinson.
mlblogsbenross
Recent Comments