May 2010
Breaking down the pitching stats
The Brewers pitching is not the best, there is no real debate there. For this blog however, I decided to look at some pitching stats that are not always posted in the morning box score. I wanted to answer the following question: Even though the pitching staff is bad, how bad can we be and still make the playoffs???? To answer this, I looked at past seasons of playoff contenders, and what their team ERA looked like, as well as run differential (runs scored versus runs against). So let’s take a look at the numbers. The 4 teams that make the playoffs last year in the National League were the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Rockies, and the Cardinals. On June 1st of 2009, the team lines looked like this:
Team Record Place Games Back Team ERA Run Differential
Phillies 28-20 1st – 5.01 +. 45/game
Dodgers 35-17 1st – 3.72 +1.67/game
Rockies 20-29 5th 13.5 4.84 -.34/game
Cardinals 29-21 2nd 1 3.33 +. 66/game
Brewers 30-20 1st – 2.04 +. 48/game
This tells us a couple of things. First, it doesn’t really matter what your record is on June 1. You could be in first or fifth. I think this should give us some hope in Wisconsin. We can also see that Team ERA is not as important as run differential. The Phillies had an absurd 5.01 ERA and still in first with 28 wins. The Rockies however, had a lower ERA but 8 less wins. They did have a -.34 runs per game differential, which seems to make all the difference. So, in the short term, ERA is not as important. Let’s look at the team ERA’s at the end of the season:
Team Team ERA Rank in NL
Cardinals 3.66 4th
Phillies 4.16 6th
Dodgers 3.41 1st
Rockies 4.22 8th
Brewers 4 .83 15th
As you can see, it pays to have a good team ERA over the course of the season. But how important is it to have a team ERA? Does this happen every year, or was last year an anomaly? To find this answer to this, I went back all the way to 2000 and looked at the 4 NL playoff teams and their NL ERA rank. It is as follows:
2008 Team Rank
PHI 4
LAD 1
CHC 3
MIL 2
2007 Team Rank
COL 8
ARI 4
PHI 13
CHC 2
2006 Team Rank
STL 9
NYM 3
SDP 2
LAD 4
2005 Team Rank
HOU 2
STL 1
ATL 6
SDP 7
2004 Team Rank
STL 2
HOU 6
LAD 4
ATL 1
2003 Team Rank
FLA 7
CHC 3
SFG 2
ATL 9
2002 Team Rank
SFG 2
STL 4
ATL 1
ARI 6
2001 Team Rank
ARI 2
ATL 1
HOU 10
STL 3
2000 Team Rank
NYM 3
STL 7
SFG 4
ATL 1
The highest ERA in the last 10 years to make the playoffs was 4.73, which was held by the 2007 Phillies. They also had one of the most potent offenses in the league, as well as some clutch playoff pitching from their starters. As of Tuesday, May 18, before the Brewers/Reds game, Milwaukee posted a 5.24 Team ERA, ranking us 14th in the National League. It seems that the Brewers need to reduce their ERA to at least 1 run less a game (4.24).
Numbers rarely lie, and I have to believe that the Brewers chances of making the playoffs depends on their pitching staffs ability to lower their ERA. There are many good teams in the NL this year, and it seems as though it might be easier to win the NL Central than it is to win the Wild Card. How far can they get it down? I hope to a reasonable number by the all star break, or else we might be seeing a whole bunch of changes, from Doug Melvin to Macha, to major, major trades.
-Ben
Random Thought of the Day
Recently, Jody Gerut hit for the cycle for the Brewers. I understand that it is hard to hit a single, a double a triple, and a homerun all in one game. The odds aren’t in your favor. But there are lots of box scores that are not in your favor and hard to do. Why should a cycle be the coolest one? Is a cycle better than 2 doubles and 2 home runs? They don’t keep records of who hits 2 triples and a double and a home run in a game? It just makes me think that if someone has a chance to get a cycle and they need a single to cinch it, they might not try to stretch it into a second double and stop at first. Which, in all seriousness, is ridiculous.
Still Trevor Time?
Trevor Hoffman is clearly struggling this year. His change-up still looks but he just can’t seem to get guys to chase it. His fastball hasn’t been fast for a number of years now but he’s been placing it on a tee for hitter thus far. People have been saying for years that his age is going to eventually catch up to him and this might actually be the year. Hoffmann is a warrior and answers questions honestly after each outing and I love that about him. He owns up to his struggles and is humble in his successes. I do not believe it is quite time to give up on him this season. He’s a future hall of famer and he deserves a longer leash.
But…..
We might want to start thinking about other options. The Brewers do not have much of a back-up plan to Hoffman. They do not have a young arm they’ve been grooming as a future closer. I think it’s time they start to think about that. You look at some of the better closers over the last 10 years and they were all groomed as setup men before they were named the teams closer. Broxton worked behind Gange and Saito, Lidge worked behind Wagner, K-Rod behind Percival, Heath Bell behind Hoffman, and even the great Mariano Rivera worked behind John Wetteland.
So looking at the Brewers right now who is the best option? My opinion is Manny Parra. I don’t want to make this seem like I’m giving up on him as a starter but more that he can be better used and a future closer. Parra will be 28 at the end of this year so he’s not old by any means. At the same time he’s at the age where this is all he’s going to be. Parra’s window to break in and be successful is starting to close. If we move him to a potential closer now he could be there for several years.
The Brewers should start to consider moving him to the back of the pen. Let him start working some 7th and 8th innings to get a feel for that. Of course if they want to do this they will have to bring Stetter back up and drop someone off the roster. I don’t see who that could be at this point but we’ll look past that for now. The Brewers should also make it mandatory that Parra sits next to and rooms with Hoffmann for every road trip and during every game. Let Hoffman start to mentor him and see what he’s capable of doing.
Parra has been criticized in the past for not being mentally tough enough. This is not something you want as a question mark for your closer. Yet Parra has shown flashes that he can be great and has the stuff the get anyone out. With some seasoning and time he can be taught to harness that into one inning 3 or 4 times a week. He won’t need to bear down for to hours coming in and out of the game every 20 minutes.
Plus his stuff is good enough to be a front line starter so he’d be lights out as a closer. All closers are failed starters at some point in their career. Weather they made the move in college, the minors, or in the majors most pitchers don’t set out to be closers. Eckersley, Hoffmann, Pappelbon, and Gagne were all supposed to be starters at some point in their career. Derrick Lowe and John Smotlz were great closers at one point in their career. Parra would be able to let lo
ose on his fastball and probably clock out in the mid 90′s. You mix that in with his slider and then have Hoffman refine his change-up and Parra could be dominant in that position.
If he’s successful he provides the Brewers with a young closer that could hold down the fort for years. The Brewers won’t need to fill the void each year with an old closer that’ll only be around for a couple of years. Plus Parra should come at a cheaper price and we can then to spend that money elsewhere (maybe on Prince or a starter).
It’s not the ideal situation but at least it’s a plan. Right now we are counting on Hawkins and Hoffman to shut teams down at the end of the game. Both have struggled this year and we know aren’t going to be around for years to come. We need to start looking to move some youth into the back end of the pen. Parra would be a great start to that transition. He makes the most sense as well. His stuff is clearly good enough to get guys out and miss bats. Plus he has a good amount off major league experience. I’d rather have a guy in that position whos pitched in the majors under that pressure over a guy who’s pitching in the minors.
-Ross
Random Baseball Thought
I just saw the Lastings Milledge highlight where he was tagged out after he thought he hit a grand slam and failed to run the bases. What the hell is wrong with players? How hard is it to just run hard out of the box and then once it goes over the wall slow down. It’s a joke and if John Russell does not bench Milledge for multiple games he should be fired. There is no excuse to not run out a ball that you hit. To hustle takes zero talent, it’s all about effort. If you lack the effort to run out a ball then you don’t deserve to play for a few games.
Time to close the books
A closer is a very specific and specialized job in baseball these days. It used to be guys would come in for 6 out saves, or even 9 outs. But these days, the closers job is to come in for the 9th inning and shut out the opponent every night there is a lead to protect. Trevor Hoffman for years has been this man- menacing, overpowering, and effective. It seems, however, that at 43 years old Hoffman’s Hall Of Fame career is coming to a close. A fastball that is neither fast or accurate enough has proven to be the downfall of the all time saves leader.
So what do we do now? The Brewers seem to be at a crossroads. Leaving Hoffman in does 2 things-it shows that we might not be serious about competing this year. Showing that we are not serious shows we are seller, not buyers on the trade market. It shows we are looking to next year, or the year after that. That means that Prince might be more tradeable then we thought at the beginning of the year. But it also means that we cannot groom our closer of the future- someone who might already be on the roster. There are 3 legit contenders for the closing role next year in AAA right now- Zach Braddock (11.1 IP, 22 K’s, .081 Batting Average Against), Mitch Stetter (7.2, 8, .185), and John Axford (9, 13, .265). These 3 pitchers all have the ability to throw hard and get batters out.
I will be watching these 3 pitchers over the course of the season to see how they improve and grow. Don’t be surprised if you see one or more of these guys wear a Brewers jersey by the end of the year. Personally, I do not think Hoffman will be able to get us to the playoffs, for the reasons listed above. While I appreciate all he has done for the Brew Crew, I got the taste of the playoffs 2 years ago and need to experience that again. Trevor, your time has come to an end.
-Ben
Random Thought of the Day
Angel Salome is taking an extended break from baseball following the birth of his child. He says he doesn’t feel “right”, so he will be reporting to Arizona to work some things out. I understand that it can be tough to be away from the family for a period of time, and baseball is 90% mental, but if any average Joe tried to pull the same thing, they would be canned in a minute! Either you want to play, or you don’t. And if you really have to think about it, you probably don’t want to.
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